| Sažetak | Područje Brčko distrikta BiH ima povoljne prirodne i ekološke uvjete za intenzivnu
voćarsku proizvodnju koja omogućava učinkovitost ulaganja i konkurentnost na tržištu.
Usprkos svemu tomu Distrikt danas ima neorganiziranu voćarsku proizvodnju. Prateći
zahtjeve tržišta i sve više standarde u pogledu proizvodnje nameće se integrirana
proizvodnja voća (IPV) koja mora omogućiti ekonomsku isplativost, konkurentnost na
tržištu te ekološku prihvatljivost.
Cilj rada je istražiti preduvjete i ograničenja za organiziranje ekonomske učinkovitosti i
održivosti uvođenja IPV-a u Brčko distriktu BiH za tri voćne vrste u tri varijante sadnje po
hektaru: šljive (Š-600 kom/ha, Š-1000 kom/ha i Š-1500 kom/ha), kruške (K-1000 kom/ha,
K-1500 kom/ha i K-2000 kom/ha) i jabuke (J-1000 kom/ha, J-2000 kom/ha i J-3000
kom/ha). Sukladno ciljevima u radu je izrađen ekonomsko-tehnološki model. Ovaj model
dokazivan je ekonomskim izračunima korištenjem metoda ekonomskog uspjeha,
ekonomičnosti i rentabilnosti, neto sadašnje vrijednosti (NSV), interne stope rentabilnosti
(IRR) i cost-benefit analize (CBA). Dobiveni rezultati iskazuju da je voćna vrsta šljiva u
varijanti sadnje Š-1500 najisplativija. Analizom osjetljivosti testirana je prva hipoteza na
promjene količine proizvodnje i cijene u rasponu od +30 % do -30 %. Rezultati
ekonomsko-tehnološkog modela pokazuju da je voćna vrsta šljiva u varijanti sadnje Š1500
najisplativija za sadnju.
Prelazak na IPV nije uvjetovan samo ekonomskim pokazateljima nego i stavovima
voćara i njihovim navikama, tj. edukacijskim, sociopolitičkim i marketinškim kriterijima.
Utvrditi stavove i spremnost voćara za uključenje u IPV naredni je cilj. Ispitivanjem i
analiziranjem stavova proizvođača voća o spremnosti na prelazak na integrirani način
proizvodnje testirana je druga hipoteza. Kao osnovni izvor podataka korišteno je
istraživanje na terenu koje je provedeno metodom anketiranja u dva ciklusa. Između prve i
druge ankete provedena je edukacija voćara na temu IPV. Višekriterijskom regresijom
mjerena je razlika između stavova voćara prije i nakon edukacije o IPV-u. Edukacijski
kriteriji najviše su utjecali na stavove voćara u pogledu IPV-a. DEX ekspertnim sustavom
rangirane su varijante proizvodnje prema isplativosti. Specifičnost ove metode je
mogućnost objedinjavanja kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih kriterija. Rezultati ove analize
pokazali su da je šljiva u varijanti sadnje Š-1500 sadnica najisplativija za sadnju po DEX
metodi.
Kreirani ekonomsko-tehnološki model ovog rada dokazao je ekonomsku isplativost
integrirane proizvodnje voća. Ekonomsko-tehnološkim modelom dokazana je prva
hipoteza da je IPV ekonomski opravdan. Treba istaći da ekonomska isplativost integrirane
proizvodnje voća nije dovoljan dokaz i razlog za uvođenje IPV-a i potrebno je potaknuti na
promjene proizvođače voća u Distriktu. Rezultati istraživanja provedbom višestruke
regresije pokazuju da postoji povezanost između promatranih varijabli istraživanja,
odnosno višestrukom se regresijom mjere promjene stavova voćara u odnosu na početnu
tvrdnju. Na temelju rezultata istraživanja dokazana je i druga hipoteza, koja se ogleda u
tomu da su ograničenja uvođenja IPV-a uvjetovana edukacijskim, sociopolitičkim i
marketinškim kriterijima.
Rezultati ovog rada mogu poslužiti poljoprivrednicima u donošenju odluke o tomu koju
voćnu vrstu saditi. Glavno zapažanje u radu ogleda se u konstataciji da se odabir sustava
proizvodnje više ne može donositi na temelju samo jednog kriterija, npr. ekonomskog,
nego se moraju uključiti i širi društveni kriteriji kao što su sociopolitički, marketinški i
tehnološki kriteriji. |
| Sažetak (engleski) | The area of Brcko District has a comparative advantage in the production of fruits,
primarily due to environmental conditions and quality of fruit produced in this area. Brcko
District is famous fruit-growing region, namely large quantities of plums have been
delivered to the Western European markets at the beginning of the last century already.
Nowadays, fruit growing is not sufficiently represented in the total agricultural production
in the District having in mind the potential areas that have natural preconditions for the
development of fruit growing.
At the current stage of technological and technical means of production, fruit growing
is done in a semi-professional way or as an additional occupation of agricultural
households mainly by the conventional approach, which is not in accordance with
standards and guidelines on healthy food production (global gap, euro gap). On the other
hand the organic production is more expensive, and in terms of technical and
technological is more demanding which makes a producer’s decision on the application of
this concept of fruit growing even harder.
Following the market demands and increasing standards in terms of production,
integrated fruit production (IFP) is imposed which needs to enable economic profit, market
competition and ecological acceptability.)
The main problem of the transition to an integrated production is reluctance of fruit
growers especially those of older age to change their habits. The stimulus for this
research is in the knowledge that even if the integrated production is proven costeffective,
fruit growers are not ready to move on to this concept. The subject of research
in addition to economic parameters is also focused on the socio-political and marketing
criteria. Accordingly, the main motivation for the study was to research the economic
social - political and marketing factors that influence the business decision of fruit growers,
switching from conventional to integrated production concept.
The aim of the paper is to explore conditions and limitations for organising economic
efficiency and sustainability of introducing IFP in Brcko District BiH for three sorts of fruit in
3 varieties of planting per hectare: plum (“Š-600” piece per hectare, “Š-1000” piece per
hectare and “Š-1500” piece per hectare), pear (“K-1000” piece per hectare, “K-1500”
piece per hectare and “K-2000” piece per hectare) and apple (“J-1000” piece per hectare,
“J-2000” piece per hectare and “J-3000” piece per hectare). In accordance with the aims
in the paper an economic-technological model was designed.
This model was proved on substantiated economic calculations using the method of
economic success, efficiency and profitability, the net present value (NPV), internal rate of
return (IRR), and cost benefit analysis (CBA). The results show that the plum sort in
varieties planting is most cost-efficient. Using sensitivity analysis the first hypothesis was
tested according to the change of production and price ranging from +30 % to -30 %. The
results of economic-technological model show that plum sort of variants planting Š-1500 is
the most cost-efficient for planting.
Transition to IFP is not conditioned only by economic factors by attitudes of fruit
growers and their habits, that is, their education, socio-political and marketing criteria.
Determining attitudes and willingness of fruit growers to include IFP is the next aim. The
main source of data was fieldwork that was conducted through a survey that was two-fold.
Between first and second survey training on IFP for fruit growers was carried out.
The dissertation is divided into several basic chapters:
The first chapter is an introduction. This section presents the main subject of the
research and the most significant characteristics of the fruit growing in the Brcko District,
the main problem in the study. It also presents the hypothesis goals.
The second chapter of the study are past researches which provide a chronological
overview of authors who dealt with the integrated production, economic indicators and
multicriteria methods.
The third chapter presents the material and research methods. Integrated production
(IFP) with the basic objectives and principles is presented in detail. We are presented with
the current situation and characteristics of the fruit production in the Brcko District and
also the methods that have been used in the research. The research has been performed
through several most important steps. First, we analyzed the present situation in fruit
production in the area of the Brcko District. Relevant documents in this field have been
collected, such as: official statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, available literature in the
field of IPV, the official statistics of the Department for Agriculture of the Government of
the Brcko District of BiH, as well as field research. Based on the collected data and
documentation, the state of fruit production in the area of the Brcko District was assessed.
The second part of the research is related to the analysis of opinions and stances of fruit
growers on IPV-in, which has been determined on the basis of data collected by surveying
fruit growers. Basic parameters when selecting subjects were the size of the property,
registration of a fruit grower in the system of support of the Government's Department for
Agriculture, and that a fruit grower is producing fruit (apple, plum, pear). The number of
subjects in the research represents a sample of approximately 10 % of the total number of
fruit growers. Sampling was done on the basis of geographical location, for the sake of
equal representation of all parts of the District is which fruit is produced.
Within this survey input data for economic analysis and data for the analysis of
stances and opinions was collected. The fourth chapter is the most important because it
presents the results of research. This section defined the survey results. In economic
terms viability of switching to IPV was proved. As an economic foundation cost
calculations were done for the three types of fruit (apple, plum and pear) and three
variations of planting (nine models). The unified results were achieved by using DEX
multicriteria model, which integrated quantitative and qualitative criteria in the study. The
economic analysis of the effectiveness of integrated fruit production was carried out by
considering the results obtained by the analysis of static and dynamic economic
indicators. In planting plum Š-1500 is the best on the basis of static indicators (efficiency,
profitability). The main contribution of this part are obtained results, which indicate which
of the following fruit varieties is the best.
The economic analysis of dynamic indicators: cost benefit analysis (CBA), net present
value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), etc. showed that plum in different varieties of
planting W-1500 produces the best results. The contribution of this part of the thesis is
that it provides grounds for making of a precise decision on the basis of economic
indicators on which of the listed varieties and which variants of planting is the most
profitable.
Fruit production is very sensitive from the standpoint of natural conditions and market
conditions. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis on the change of two key factors which
determine fruit production was done, and those were the sale price and yield of fruit in the
range of ± 30 % of the initial value obtained by calculations.
In the table we can notice that the Š-1500 plum in different variants of planting is the least
sensitive to changes. Regression analysis measures the strength of influence of fruit
growers’ stances in the Brcko District.
Multi-criteria regression was used to measure the differences between attitudes of fruit
growers before and after the training This analysis showed that educational criteria
changed the most in case of fruit growers. The results of the research using multiple
regression show that there is a connection between observed variables, that is, multiple
regression was used to measure the attitudes of fruit grower in relation to the initial
statement. Based on the results of the research the second hypothesis was proved and it
is about the fact that limitations of introducing IFP are conditioned by education, socio-
political and marketing criteria. The DEX expert system was used in order to rank the
most cost-effective production of variants. The specificity of this method is the possibility
to encompass qualitative and quantitative criteria. The results of this analysis showed that
the plum planting “Š-1500” is the most cost-effective seedling for planting by DEX method.
The fifth chapter is a discussion in which the basic concerns about the research were
presented. The sixth chapter presents conclusions and lists the results of the research.
The basic achievement of this paper is the economic and technological model which is
applicable in practice.
The economic-technological model created in this paper proved the economical profit
of integrated fruit production. This model proved the first hypothesis that IFP is
economically justified. It needs to be pointed out that economic profit of integrated fruit
production is not enough as a proof and the reason for introduction of IFP. Producers also
need to be encouraged to make a change in Brcko District.
The results of this paper can serve the producers when making decisions in terms of
which fruit sort to plant. The main observation of the paper is the assertion that the
selection of production systems cannot be only be based on one criterion only, such as
economic, but wider social criteria need to be included such as socio-political,
technological and marketing criteria. |
