Rizici i upravljanje rizikom u tovu junadi

master's thesis

• Author: Matija Lacković
• Mentor: Mario Njavro (mentor)
• Committee member: Mario Njavro (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vesna Očić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Lari Hadelan (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Agriculture; (Management and Rural Entrepreneurship); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2016-10-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: BIOTECHNICAL SCIENCES; Agronomy

Abstract

Rad određuje i analizira najvažnije proizvodne, ljudske, tržišne i financijske rizike kroz učestalost njihove pojave i negativni utjecaj na proizvodnju i poslovanje na obiteljskom poljoprivrednom gospodarstvu Lacković koje se bavi tovom junadi. Poslovanje je analizirano metodom kalkulacije proizvodnje i doprinosa pokrića. Gospodarstvo je u protekloj godini ostavrili ukupan prihod u tovu junadi od 700.000,00 kn uz ukupne troškove u iznosu od 506.952,40 kn, dohodak gospodarstva iznosi je 246.797,60 kn.
Prema izvršenoj analizi utvrđen je najveći utjecaj proizvodnog rizika na poslovanje Gospodarstva, dok je drugi po važnosti utjecaj financijskog rizika. Analizirano gospodarstvo ima ugovorenu proizvodnju (uslužni tov) te na taj način smanjuje utjecaj tržišnog rizika. Metodama analize rizika, a na temelju podataka Gospodarstva i sekundardnih izvora podataka izrađeni su scenariji i payoff matrica. Analiza rizika uključiva je tri scenarija, koji su u obzir uzimali promjenu cijene teladi, repromaterijala i stočne hrane, mortalitet te promjenu cijene junadi i visinu isplate poticaja.
Najveća je vjerojatnost (41%) ostvarenja scenarija realnih prihoda i realnih troškova te u tom slučaju dohodak iznosi 163.755,60 kn. Rizik gubitka na gospodarstvu javlja se u 17% slučajeva i to uz pretpostavke visoke cijene teladi, niske otkupne cijene junadi (12,32 kn/kg), visoku stopu mortaliteta od 5%, povećanje cijene repromaterijala od 15% te isplatu poticaja u smanjenom iznosu. U 41% vjerojatnosti, dohodak poljoprivrednog gospodarstva iznosi 163.755,60 kn. Poslovanje Gospodarstva u trenutnim uvjetima je pozitivno. Gospodarstvo je svijesno postojanja rizičnih događaja za koje ima plan rješavanja.

Abstract (english)

The work defines and analyzes the most important production, human, market and financial risks through the frequency of their occurrence and the negative impact on production and operation of the family farm Lackovic that cattle fattening. The business is analyzed by the method of calculation of production and contribution margins. The economy in the past year, the total income earned by fattening beef cattle of £ 700,000.00 at a total cost in the amount of 506,952.40 kn, income economy is the £ 246,797.60.
According to an analysis determined the greatest impact on the business of the production risk management, while the second most important impact of financial risk. Analyzed economy has contracted production (utility fattening) and thus reduces the impact of market risk. Methods of risk analysis, based on data economies and of secondary data sources are made scenarios and payoff matrix. Risk analysis is inclusive of three scenarios, which take into account changes in the price of calves, raw materials and animal feed, mortality and changes in the price of bullocks and the amount of payment incentives.
The highest probability (41%) achieving a scenario of real income and real costs, in which case the income is £ 163,755.60. The risk of loss to the economy occurs in 17% of cases and with the assumption of high prices of calves, low purchase price of beef cattle (12.32 € / kg), high mortality rate of 5%, increase in prices of raw materials by 15% and the payment of subsidies in the reduced amount . At 41% probability, farm income is £ 163,755.60. Business Economies in the current is positive. The economy is conscious of the existence of risk events that have a plan to solve.

• Keywords: rizik; analiza rizika; tov junadi
• Keywords (english): risk; riskanalysis; cattle fattening
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:204:262031
• Study programme: Title: Agribusiness and Rural Development; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/ magistra inženjer/inženjerka agrobiznisa i ruralnog razvitka (magistar/ magistra inženjer/inženjerka agrobiznisa i ruralnog razvitka)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2018-01-26 09:21:44