Validacija prognoznog modela ECAMON za prognozu kukuruznog moljca (Ostrinia nubilalis Hubn. Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

master's thesis

• Title (english): Validation of the ECAMON forecast model for the European Corn Borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hubn. Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)
• Author: Monika Zlodi
• Mentor: Renata Bažok (mentor)
• Committee member: Renata Bažok (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Darija Lemić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zlatko Svečnjak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Agriculture; (Department of Agricultural Zoology); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-09-25, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: BIOTECHNICAL SCIENCES; Agronomy

Abstract

Kukuruzni moljac (Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner) jedan je od najvećih štetnika hrvatske poljoprivrede. Riječ je o štetniku proširenom u svim područjima Hrvatske gdje se uzgaja kukuruz. Uzrokuje smanjenje prinosa od 2 do 25 %, a u godinama povoljnim za njegov razvoj i više. Međutim, kemijsko suzbijanje kukuruznog moljca provodi se samo u sjemenskom kukuruzu i kukuruzu šećercu. Pravilno određivanje optimalnog roka i potrebe suzbijanja u odgovarajuće vrijeme izuzetno je važno. Modeli prognoze predstavljaju važne komponente integriranih strategija upravljanja štetnicima jer se mjere zaštite moraju vremenski uskladiti s ključnim fazama razvoja štetnika. Njima se utvrđuje optimalno vrijeme i opravdanost zaštite od štetnika na određenom području za što je potrebno poznavati podatke o vremenu pojave i brojnosti štetnika. Model ECAMON je višegeneracijski fenološki model koji predviđa razvoj moljca, procjenjuje rizik od zasnivanja populacije i pruža naznake čimbenika stresa povezanih s klimom. Cilj ovog diplomskog rada bio je utvrditi dinamiku izlijetanja leptira prve generacije u kavezima sa starim kukuruzincem, utvrditi dinamiku pojave leptira na feromonskim i BISEX mamcima, utvrditi dinamiku prisutnost moljca u polju te visinu štete. Temeljem prikupljenih podataka utvrđena je pouzdanost modela prognoze ECAMON za prognoziranje kukuruznog moljca u uvjetima sjeverozapadne Hrvatske. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da se dinamika izlijetanja leptira prve generacije uspješno može pratiti pomoću entomoloških kaveza sa starim kukuruzincem. Uz kasno postavljanje, na ulov leptira na mamcima također je utjecala slaba privlačnost kao i vrsta korištenih mamaca. Utvrđivanje prisutnosti moljca i šteta u polju obavljalo se vizualnim pregledima. Dobiveni podaci ukazuju na oštećenja od gusjenica koja su se povećavala tijekom perioda očitavanja. Oštećenja su se povećavala usporedno s rastom sume efektivnih temperatura. Sume efektivnih temperatura kod kojih su utvrđeni početni let leptira, pojava 50 % i pojava 95 % leptira u entomološkim kavezima, uspoređene su s vrijednostima iz ECAMON modela. Utvrđeni podaci ukazuju na neznatno kasniju pojavu prve generacije moljaca u uvjetima sjeverozapadne Hrvatske, u odnosu na predviđanje prve pojave leptira zasnovano na ECAMON modelu.

Abstract (english)

The European Corn Borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner) is one of the major pests in Croatian agriculture. It is a pest that has spread to all regions of Croatia where corn is grown. It causes yield reductions ranging from 2 to 25 %, and even more in years favorable for its development. However, chemical control of the European Corn Borer is only carried out in seed corn and sweet corn. Properly determining the optimal timing and necessity for control at the right time is extremely important. Forecasting models are important components of integrated pest management strategies because protective measures must be timed to coincide with the key stages of pest development. They determine the optimal timing and justification for pest control in a specific area, requiring knowledge of weather data and pest population numbers. The ECAMON model is a multi-generational phenological model that predicts the development of the corn borer, assesses the risk of population establishment, and provides indications of climate-related stress factors. The aim of this thesis was to determine the dynamics of the emergence of the first-generation moths in cages with old corn stubble, establish the dynamics of moth appearance on pheromone and BISEX traps, determine the dynamics of corn borer presence in the field, and assess the level of damage. Based on the collected data, the reliability of the ECAMON forecasting model for predicting the European Corn Borer in northwestern Croatia was determined. The research results showed that the dynamics of the emergence of the first-generation moths can be successfully monitored using entomological cages with old corn stubble. Late placement of traps also influenced moth capture on traps, as well as the attractiveness of the bait used. The presence of the corn borer and damage in the field were assessed through visual inspections. The data obtained indicated damage caused by caterpillars, which increased during the monitoring period. Damage increased in parallel with the accumulation of effective temperatures. The effective temperatures at which the initial flight of moths, the appearance of 50 % of moths, and the appearance of 95 % of moths in entomological cages were determined and compared to the values from the ECAMON model. The data showed a slightly later appearance of the first generation of moths in the northwestern Croatia compared to the prediction of the first moth appearance based on the ECAMON model.

• Keywords: ECAMON; kukuruzni moljac; prognoza; dinamika pojave; štete
• Keywords (english): ECAMON; European corn borer; forecast; population dynamic; damages
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:204:048506
• Study programme: Title: Phytomedicine; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/ magistra inženjer/inženjerka fitomedicine (magistar/ magistra inženjer/inženjerka fitomedicine)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2023-11-06 12:44:02