| Abstract | Rizici u poljoprivredi, a pogotovo rizik klimatskih promjena, imaju sve veći utjecaj na
poljoprivredu. Mediteran je posebice izložen većem utjecaju klimatskih promjena, dok se
vinogradarstvo i vinarstvo smatraju za poljoprivredne proizvodnje posebno osjetljive na
klimatske promjene. Zbog toga je fokus ovog istraživanja na vinogradarstvu i vinarstvu u
Jadranskoj Hrvatskoj. S ciljem upravljanja rizikom poljoprivrednici mogu koristiti strategije na
gospodarstvu, ali i strategije za transfer rizika. U okviru Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike
prepoznata je važnost upravljanja rizikom u poljoprivredi te su osmišljane tri mjere za
upravljanje rizikom za poljoprivrednike Europske unije. Tri mjere su subvencionirano
poljoprivredno osiguranje, osiguranje dohotka (IST) i uzajamni fond. Osiguranje dohotka
pokriva rizik gubitka dohotka u slučaju njegova pada preko 20 % ili 30 % prosječnog
godišnjeg dohotka pojedinog poljoprivrednika.
Cilj rada je ispitati spremnost vinogradara i vinara na primjenu inovativne strategije za
upravljanje rizikom, te maksimiziraju li ispitanici korisnost primjenom osiguranja dohotka.
Dodatno, u istraživanju je odabir osiguranja dohotka među vinogradarima i vinarima ocijenjen
varijablom preferencije prema riziku i varijablom subjektivna vjerojatnost gubitka dohotka.
Istraženo je kako socio-demografske varijable i izabrane varijable o gospodarstvu utječu na
izbor osiguranja dohotka.
Za ostvarenje cilja korištene su metode eksperiment diskretnog odabira (DCE), metoda
višestruke cjenovne liste (MPL) i metoda bodovanja. Primjenom Monte Carlo simulacije u
radu se ocjenjuje utjecaj IST-a na poslovanje vinogradarskog gospodarstva.
Rezultati istraživanja na uzorku od 116 vinogradara i vinara Jadranske Hrvatske pokazuju
kako su vinogradari i vinari skloni izboru osiguranja dohotka i tako maksimiziraju svoju
korisnost. Na maksimiziranje korisnosti vinogradara i vinara pri izboru osiguranja dohotka
utječu neka od obilježja eksperimenta, smanjenje premije, povećanje naknade štete i izračun
vremenskog okvira pada dohotka temeljem triju godina. Dodatne analize pokazuju kako
vinogradari i vinari koji su pesimistični prema gubitku dohotka izabiru osiguranje dohotka, u
odnosu na izbor ni jednog tipa osiguranja dohotka (optout varijabla). Mladi poljoprivrednici i
oni kojima je vinogradarstvo isključiva djelatnost skloni su izboru osiguranja dohotka.
Simulacije pokazuju pozitivan utjecaj osiguranja dohotka na poslovanje vinogradarskog
gospodarstva.
Istraživanjem je potvrđeno kako su vinogradari i vinari spremni izabrati inovativnu strategiju
upravljanja rizikom, osiguranje dohotka, te kako ista doprinosi pozitivnom poslovanju
vinogradarskog gospodarstva. Provedeno je istraživanje prvo istraživanje koje ocjenjuje izbor
osiguranja dohotka primjenom eksperimenta diskretnog odabira u Europskoj uniji i može
poslužiti kao podloga za dizajn osiguranja dohotka u članicama Unije. |
| Abstract (english) | Risks in agriculture and the risk of climate change are increasingly impacting agriculture, and
farmers are aware of climate change. Besides production risk, farmers note income
variability on their farms. Previous research stated that income variability is seen through the
years among EU farmers. In Croatia, average income increased from 2014 to 2017, and
higher-income variability was recorded for all farms and horticultural farms. The highest
income variability was recorded among wine farms in Croatia (Čop and Njavro, 2022a).
To cope with risks, farmers can use on-farm strategies (such as irrigation, changing the
harvest date, organic production, etc.) and risk transfer strategies (agricultural insurance,
hedging, production contracts, etc.). However, agricultural insurance in Croatia is applied
only to 4% of farmers. The main reasons for the low rate of interest for agricultural insurance
are high premiums, insurance coverage, and many administration (Smrkulj and Njavro,
2016). Within the Common Agricultural Policy framework, the importance of risk
management in agriculture has been recognized, and three risk management measures
have been developed for EU farmers. The three measures are subsidized agricultural
insurance, an income stabilization tool (IST), and a mutual fund (EU Regulation 1305/2013
and EU Regulation 2393/2017). The income stabilization tool compensates farmers for a
severe drop in their income to 70% loss. The IST will be activated when the drop in income
exceeds 30 % or (20%) of the average annual income of the individual farmer in the
preceding three-year period or a three-year average based on the preceding five-year period
excluding the highest and lowest entry (EU Regulation 1305/2013 and EU Regulation
2393/2017). The main advantage of the IST is that IST represents whole farm insurance that
covers all risks at the farm, from production and price to income risk.
The paper's objectives are to examine the readiness of vine growers and wine producers
(VG-WP) to apply an innovative risk management strategy and whether respondents
maximize utility by applying an IST. Additionally, in the research, we assess how the
behavioral factors (variables of risk preference and subjective probability of income loss),
socio-demographic variables, and farm characteristics affect the choice of income
stabilization tool. We used a questionnaire and conducted a survey among VG-WP from
Adriatic Croatia to collect data. The reason for choosing Adriatic Croatia is a higher exposure
of Mediterrane to climate change (Jacobs et al., 2019; Carraro and Sgobbi, 2008; Giorgi and
Lionello, 2008).
Methods used in the paper are the discrete choice experiment (DCE), the multiple price list
(MPL), and the scoring method. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the impact of
IST on the vine business. The DCE examines respondents' stated preferences for innovative
risk management strategy through hypothetical choices using random utility theory
(McFadden, 1974). VG-WP could choose among alternatives, income stabilization tool (IST)
or optout alternative (meaning not choosing IST). IST was defined by four attributes and
associated levels: income threshold (10%, 20%, and 30%), compensation (60%, 70%, and
80%), premium (2.000 HRK/HA, 2.500 HRK/HA, 3.200 HRK/HA, 4.200 HRK/HA and 5.400
HRK/HA) and time (3 or 5 years – the time frame used to calculate whether the income drop
has reached the threshold). VG-WP received 12 choice cards, and in every one of them, they
needed to choose only one alternative with whom they maximize their utility. For choice card
design, we used Ngene software, and for model estimation, STATA v. 16. In our modelling
approach, we assume that non-price attributes are distributed according to a normal
distribution with mean and standard deviation to be estimated and that the error term is
distributed according to an iid extreme value (Train, 2009). We estimate the multinomial logit
model (MNL) and mixed logit model (RP-MNL) that capture unobserved heterogeneity for the
non-price attributes. With MPL, we research farmers' risk preferences and, using a scoring
method, examine subjective probabilities of income loss in 2020 compared to 2019.
The MNL and RP-MNL models show that the VG-WP of the Adriatic Croatia prefers IST, and
by choosing IST, they maximize their utility. Increment in compensation level and the
calculation of the average income loss based on three years impact VG-WP's maximizing
utility. Premium as an attribute of IST has a negative coefficient that shows that respondents
prefer a lower premium. The income threshold is not statistically significant and does not
impact VG-WP's IST choice. The MPL and scoring method show that VG-WPs are riskaverse
and do not expect high-income losses. Around 85% of respondents expect income
loss from 0-50%, while only 15% of VG-WP expect losses higher and equal to 51%. In
addition, young farmers and those who deal with viticulture production only are ready to
choose IST. Furthermore, additional analyzes show that VG-WP who are pessimistic about
the loss of income choose IST. The Monte Carlo simulations show a positive impact of IST
on the vine business.
The research has confirmed that VG-WPs are ready to choose an innovative risk
management strategy (IST). The conducted research is the first research that evaluates the
farmers' acceptability of IST using the discrete choice experiment at the EU level and can
serve as a basis for the design of IST in Croatia and broader.
The scientific contribution of the research is reflected in the development of the application of
discrete choice experiment in decision making. It helps to identify the limitations of this
method in assessing the introduction of IST as an innovation for risk management. The
research limitations are reflected in the application of IST among VG-WP as a hypothetical
case. VG-WP does not have to honestly admit whether or not they understood IST and the
method of calculating the compensation concerning different cases of income decline. This
potential problem has been reduced by a detailed description of the functioning of the IST
during interviewing. An additional limitation of the research may be the geographical
distribution of the respondents. Apart from Adriatic Croatia, the research could be extended
to the whole of Croatia (and the EU) to take into account the opinions and IST preferences of
farmers. The research results can assist policy makers in deciding on the introduction of IST
in Croatian agricultural policy and help design IST. Previous research stated that only three
countries have planned to introduce IST, and only Italy has included IST in existing risk
management instruments in agriculture. Limitations of the application of IST are the lack of
legislation and the establishment of IST, the lack of practice examples, and the lack of
understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of IST. From our viewpoint, already
introduced subsidized insurance can lead to an increment of contracted insurance policies
and can reduce farmers' aversion to the introduction, selection, and application of innovative
subsidized CAP measures in the future.
This doctoral research can encourage further research on experiments and experimental
methods, emphasizing DCE in risk management in agriculture and decision making. The
research design can serve as a basis for similar research on assessing farmers' preferences
according to a mutual fund or new types of insurance (e.g., revenue insurance, index
insurance). DCE research can also be applied to the design of the Common Agricultural
Policy, i.e., agricultural measures. In addition, an experiment to assess the choice of IST
could be conducted in the other EU Member States. In addition to the applied behavioral
variables (subjective probabilities and risk preferences), future research may include
variables of trust, the moral hazard of respondents, and their willingness to choose IST. The
conducted research is the first such research based on IST selection (new Rural
Development Programme measures) and the impact of behavioral variables on IST
selection. |
