| Abstract | U svijetu je naglašen proces ekonomskih integracija i globalizacije, što nacionalne ekonomije
potiče na jačanje izvozne konkurentnosti općenito, sektorski, odnosno kod pojedinačnih
proizvoda. To je posebice značajno za relativno male ekonomije, kao što je Hrvatska, kod
kojih je snažan utjecaj izvoza na gospodarski rast i razvoj.
Poljoprivreda je, zbog svoje multifunkcionalnosti, jedan od „najzaštićenijih“ sektora i to
posebice u Europi. Sustavi potpora i zaštite često su dovodili do njene cjenovne
nekonkurentnosti na svjetskom tržištu pri čemu se u sličnom položaju nalazi i poljoprivredni
sektor RH.
Cilj ovoga istraživanja je izračun međunarodne cjenovne konkurentnosti hrvatske
poljoprivrede kroz istraživanje konkurentnosti vrijednosno najzastupljenijih poljoprivrednih
proizvoda. Istraživanjem su obuhvaćeni poljoprivredni proizvodi čiji je pojedinačni udjel u
ukupnoj vrijednosti poljoprivredne proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske u razdoblju 2005-2012.
godine preko 5%, a to su pšenica, kukuruz, meso goveda, meso svinja, meso peradi i kravlje
mlijeko. Navedeni proizvodi predstavljaju 58,07% ukupne vrijednosti poljoprivredne
proizvodnje Republike. Za istraživanje konkurentnosti korišteni su indeks troškova domaćih
resursa (DRC – Domestic Resoruce Cost) i Otkrivena komparativna prednost (RCA -
Revealed Comparative Advantage).
Hrvatska nije značajniji, po udjelu, poljoprivredni proizvođač u svjetskom, europskom te ni
EU okruženju. U ukupnoj europskoj proizvodnji (prosjek količine 2005-2012..) Hrvatska
sudjeluje sa pšenicom 0,38%, kukuruzom 2,20%, kravljim mlijekom 0,38%, goveđem mesu
0,76%, svinjskom mesu 0,45% te mesu peradi 0,25%. Nešto viši udjel je u proizvodnji
Europske unije.
Za usporedbu konkurentnosti uzete su države s kojima je Hrvatska imala prosječno najveću
vanjskotrgovinsku razmjenu pojedinim proizvodima u razdoblju 2005.-2012. godine. To je
Italija u slučaju pšenice i kukuruza, Njemačka kod mesa svinja i mlijeka, Nizozemska kod
mesa goveda te Brazil kod mesa peradi.
Vrijednosti DRC koeficijenta pokazuju da je Hrvatska konkurenta kod pšenice, kukuruza i
mesa peradi, granično kod mesa svinja, a izrazito nekonkurentna kod mlijeka i mesa goveda.
Povećanje konkurentnosti je simulirano povećanjem postojeće proizvodnje po jedinici
kapaciteta za 20%, povećanjem proizvodnje po jedinici kapaciteta na razinu konkurentnih
zemalja te kod deprecijacije kune za 10%. Najveće povećanje konkurentnosti je moguće
dosizanjem proizvodnje po jedinici kapaciteta konkurentskih država. Kod svih analiziranih
proizvoda, izuzev goveđeg mesa, Hrvatska postaje konkurentnom. Veliki utjecaj na Hrvatsku
nekonkurentnost imaju i niži varijabilni troškovi proizvodnje u konkurentnim državama koji
omogućavaju za njih niže izvozne cijene u odnosu na cijene istih Hrvatskih proizvoda. Na
(ne) konkurentnost također utječe i devizni tečaj koji pogoduje uvoznicima poljoprivrednoprehrambenih
proizvoda. |
| Abstract (english) | In the world here is a strong emphasis on the process of economic integration and
globalization, which encourages the national economies to strengthen export
competitiveness in general, in a sector or in individual products. This is particularly important
for relatively small economies, such as Croatia, where there is a strong influence of exports
on economic growth and development.
Agriculture is due to its multifunctionality one of the "most protected" sectors, particularly in
Europe. Systems of support and protection have often brought to its price uncompetitiveness
in the world market with a similar position of the agricultural sector of Croatia.
The study started from the hypothesis that Croatian agriculture, except in the case of some
products, is not internationally competitive, but also that there is a potential to increase its
competitiveness by better use of production factors. The aim was to calculate the
international price competitiveness of Croatian agriculture through research competitiveness
of the most valuable frequent agricultural products (period average 2005-2012.). The survey
covers agricultural products whose individual contribution to the total value of agricultural
production is over 5%, which are wheat (6.47 %), corn (12.55%), beef (7.83%), pork
(12.09%), poultry (6.82%) and cow's milk (12.32%). These products represent 58.07% of the
total value of agricultural production of Croatia in that period.
For the research competitiveness are used index Domestic Resoruce Cost (DRC) and
Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). In addition to the above methods, export
performance indicators are also used, such as the coverage of imports with exports, foreign
trade balance and the relative contribution of foreign trade of agricultural and food products
gross domestic product.
Sources of information are statistical reports and publications of the Croatian Central Bureau
of Statistics, reports by the Market Information System in Agriculture, Croatian Chamber of
Agriculture, and reports by the Croatian Agricultural Agency, reports by FADN, WTO,
Eurostat and FAO. For some years, and occurrences the data are assessed.
Croatia with the analyzed products is not a significant factor in Europe and the European
Union. In wheat Croatia participates with 0.29% in the areas of Europe and 0.64% in the
European Union. Similar shares were in manufacturing (0.38% of Europe and 0.60% of the
EU). Yields are higher than those in Europe (index 133), but lower than the yield in the EU
(index 92). Some greater importance Croatia has in maize (2.03% of the area of Europe and
3.38% of the area of the EU). Croatia produced 2.20% of the total European production and
3.15% of EU maize production. As with wheat, the average yields are higher than the
European (index 110), but lower than the EU yields (index 94). Croatian share is small in the
number of dairy cows Europe (0.52%) and the EU (0.86%) and even lower in milk production
(in Europe 0.38% and 0.61% in the EU) as a result of significantly lower production per cow
(production index in relation to Europe 73, in relation to the EU 62). There is a lower share of
the total Croatian the number of cattle and was 0.36% in Europe and 0.51% in the EU. There
is a higher share is in the meat produced in Europe and accounts for 0.76% and 1.03% of
the EU due to higher production of meat cattle. Although there are good conditions for pig
production, especially due to the significant production of maize, the Croatian share in the
number of pigs in Europe is 0.6% and 0.80% in the EU. There is a lower share of the meat
produced in Europe and accounts for 0.45% in the EU 0.53% as a result of lower production
of meat per pig (index compared to Europe was 60 and EU 57). In the total number of poultry
in Europe, Croatia participates with 0.48% and 0.72% in the EU. However, its share in
produced meat is lower and in Europe it is 0.25% and 0.32% of the EU as a result of lower
production of meat per stem (index compared to Europe's 51 or EU 45).
In that period Croatia has a negative foreign trade balance as a result of quantitative
insufficient production and lack of competitiveness of the international price. Imports of
agricultural and food products increased from 1.615 to 2.532 billion, while exports from 0.92
to 1.593 billion USD, which affected the increase in the negative annual balance of -695 to 939
million. However, during the analyzed period the coverage of imports by exports in
agricultural and food products is higher than the average of total foreign trade (average for
the period is at the agro-food products 60.3%, a total of 51.5%). In the analyzed products
Croatia has a surplus (in value) of wheat, with the exception of 2005 and 2008, and in maize,
and the deficit with milk, beef, pork and poultry meat.
To calculate the importance of certain Croatian products in the world, we used the RCA
coefficient and if it is over 1 it means that the state has expressed a comparative advantage
in that product, and vice versa. The resulting RCA index shows the great importance of beef
(2.028) and corn (2.163) for Croatia, something less wheat (1.741) and milk (1.14), whereas
poultry meat (0.616) and pork are ‘’irrelevant’’.
To calculate the international competitiveness of selected products, the DRC coefficient was
used, in which for Croatia competitive are those countries from which it relatively most
imported or exported - depending on the foreign trade balance. These are Italy for wheat and
corn, Netherlands for beef, Germany for pork and milk, and Brazil for poultry meat.
Wheat and corn are internationally competitive products but even greater competitiveness
would be achieved by increasing yields to the level of Italy. In milk production Croatia is not
competitive. The scenarios that predict an increase in milk production by 20% with the same
number of cows, increasing the number of cows by 20% with the same milk production and
at the same time increasing the number of cows and milk production by 20% would lead to
the fact that milk production is internationally competitive. Only domestic milk production of
cows as the ones in Germany would bring international competitiveness. Production of beef
is not internationally competitive and Croatia will not achieve it in the near future. The
production of pork competitive most of the period (2005, 2006, 2011 and 2012), and the
period 2007/10. uncompetitive. Production of poultry meat is internationally competitive
during the entire period.
A lower level of competitiveness is mostly due to the influence of considerably more
expensive inputs or major domestic variable costs compared to variable costs that
competitive agricultural countries have. In order to increase the international competitiveness
of Croatian agriculture it is necessary to increase the production per unit of capacity requiring
major changes in manufacturing technology. |
